Thursday, October 14, 2004
How Kerry Wins
According to The New Republic Online: Campaign Journal, Kerry needs to win Ohio, and pick up seven more votes to win. They do a nice job outlining where things stand and how things are leaning. Watching the polls makes me crazy. It's essentially a dead heat. But for those who'd like to see Kerry win, there is some encouraging news:
I still maintain the conventional wisdom that 2nd term presidential elections are a referendum on the incumbent. I think enough people are concerned with this president's mismanagement of the war in Iraq (whether or not they agreed with the decision to go) and his sky-rocketing deficits to say, "let's give the other guy a shot." A month ago, many people were too scared of Kerry to give him a shot. After the debates, their comfort level has risen. He didn't make an ass of himself. He seemed presidential and thoughtful.
Add it all up and I think he'll win. But I'm just one girl trying to take a 10,000 foot view and not get bogged down in the polls and the pundits and the predictions. This race is a referendum on the incumbent. Simple. Imcumbent's job approval rating is below 50. Kerry isn't well-liked either, but he's made himself a more viable candidate recently. That impression will settle and solidify in the next two weeks. Kerry will win.
- In something like 86% of the time in recent presidential elections for which we have polling data, undecideds break for the challenger.
- More of the new registrations are Democratic than Republican. New polls show that Bush's job approval rating is 44% -- far below the 50% usually needed to win.
- The positive view of the Democrats has gone up.
- Heavy voter turnout usually favors Democrats, so if they can mobilize their base (and the Democrats are more pissed and motivated than the Republicans, so that's a definite possibility), they'll do well.
I still maintain the conventional wisdom that 2nd term presidential elections are a referendum on the incumbent. I think enough people are concerned with this president's mismanagement of the war in Iraq (whether or not they agreed with the decision to go) and his sky-rocketing deficits to say, "let's give the other guy a shot." A month ago, many people were too scared of Kerry to give him a shot. After the debates, their comfort level has risen. He didn't make an ass of himself. He seemed presidential and thoughtful.
Add it all up and I think he'll win. But I'm just one girl trying to take a 10,000 foot view and not get bogged down in the polls and the pundits and the predictions. This race is a referendum on the incumbent. Simple. Imcumbent's job approval rating is below 50. Kerry isn't well-liked either, but he's made himself a more viable candidate recently. That impression will settle and solidify in the next two weeks. Kerry will win.
