Wednesday, September 08, 2004
Bush is NOT 11 Points Ahead
Time and Newsweek and I think CNN are all showing double-digit leads for the President in national polling of likely voters. So he did get a post-convention bounce, something the Kerry campaign didn't get much of. But you know polls are only as good as their methodology. Zogby has been polling continuously throughout the campaign, is generally well-respected, and is contracted by the Wall Street Journal. He puts Bush ahead by two points and outlines how his methodology differs from other pollsters. Look, I'm not a polling expert so I'm not saying his methodology is better, just different, and makes sense to me when I read his explanation.
It's the Electoral College, Stupid
Of course, national polls aren't as important as state polls (Here's Zogby's latest and a slight correction) that predict the electoral split. Check out this fun, interactive map
at the New York Times. You can click on states and choose which way you think they'll go in November, and instantly see what that does to the total electoral count for each candidate. It also shows the electoral count based on NY Times' polls. (The New York Times requires registration, but it's free and quick.)
Other electoral college polls:
Electoral Vote.Com (currently showing Kerry in the lead)
Rasmussen Reports (currently showing Bush in the lead)
Happy Stats-Hunting! :-)
It's the Electoral College, Stupid
Of course, national polls aren't as important as state polls (Here's Zogby's latest and a slight correction) that predict the electoral split. Check out this fun, interactive map
at the New York Times. You can click on states and choose which way you think they'll go in November, and instantly see what that does to the total electoral count for each candidate. It also shows the electoral count based on NY Times' polls. (The New York Times requires registration, but it's free and quick.)
Other electoral college polls:
Electoral Vote.Com (currently showing Kerry in the lead)
Rasmussen Reports (currently showing Bush in the lead)
Happy Stats-Hunting! :-)
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Here's another map that you might like:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/politics101/politics101_ecmap.html
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http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/politics101/politics101_ecmap.html
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